The Case-Shiller Shows Home Prices Are Still On Their Way Up

For the second month in a row, 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller real estate markets posted higher home values.  It's the 6th consecutive strong showing for the benchmark private-sector housing index.

Combined with falling home supplies and rising sales figures, this month's Case-Shiller Index suggests that housing may have bottomed sometime earlier this year.

It's cause for optimism.

Even Case-Shiller respresentatives seem excited. In its press release, the publishers singled out the index's winning streak, commenting on the recent "stabilization in national real estate values".

But, in that statement, we see the Case-Shiller Index's biggest flaw.  The index ipurports itself to be a national real estate metric but, in reality, there is no such thing as a national real estate market.

All real estate is local.

The Case-Shiller Index reports home values for 20 U.S. cities.  Each of those cities, however, is comprised of smaller neighborhoods, each with its own character, desirability, and price points.  Case-Shiller attempts to lump it all together -- an impossibility.

As an example, New York City posted a nearly 1 percent increase in July but that figure is just a city summary.  The actual market in three distinct neighborhoods -- Upper East Side, Chelsea, and Flatbush -- vary tremendously.  Not to mention Long Island, too.

Flaws aside, though, Case-Shiller is still important.  It helps to identify broader trends in housing and housing may hold the key to our economic future.

With July's Case-Shiller Index, we see that the housing market's recovery is being sustained.

Fannie Mae Passes New, Tougher Mortgage Guidelines

Getting approved for a mortgage is about to harder.

For the second time in less than 3 months, Fannie Mae announced changes to its mortgage guidelines. 

In its official announcement, Fannie Mae details the updates, meant to reduce the mortgage firm's overall risk.

The first major change is with respect to credit scoring.  All Fannie Mae loans -- whether underwritten electronically or manually -- require a 620 credit score minimum.  There are very few exceptions.

A second change relates to loans with private mortgage insurance.  Homeowners whose loan-to-value exceeds 80 percent now have a choice:

1. Accept higher mortgage insurance premiums month-after-month
   
2. Accept a one-time fee paid at closing to compensate for higher risk

Both options pass higher costs to consumers.

Then, a third change relates to maximum debt-to-income ratio.  As announced in a separate document, Fannie Mae will no longer approve expense ratios exceeding 45 percent except with very strong assets and credit to back it up.  In no case can expense ratios exceed 50 percent.

There are other changes, too, including the elimination of seldom-used mortgage products and new risk-based pricing on "expanded level" approvals.

Fannie Mae implements its updates during the weekend of December 12. 

Therefore, if you're going to need (or want) a new mortgage later this year, consider moving up your timeframe to October or November.  Once the guidelines change, getting approved for a mortgage is going to be tougher.

Existing-Home Sales Ease Following 4 Monthly Gains

Existing-home sales in August 2009 gave back some of their strong gain in July but remain above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales- including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops- declined 2.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million units in August from a pace of 5.24 million in July, but remain 3.4% above the 4.93 million-unit level in August 2008. In the previous four months, sales had risen a total of 15.2%.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the tax credit is working. “Home sales retrenched from a very strong improvement in July but continue to be much higher than before the stimulus. The first-time buyer tax credit is having the intended impact of bringing buyers into the market, allowing them to take advantage of very favorable affordability conditions,” he said. “Some of the give-back in closed sales appears to result from rising numbers of contracts entering the system, with some fallouts and a backlog contributing to a longer closing process, but the decline demonstrates we can’t take a housing rebound for granted.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.19% in August from 5.22% in July; the rate was 6.48% in August 2008.

An NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 30% of homes in August, and that distressed homes accounted for 31% of transactions; both were unchanged from July. “The recent trend shows broad improvement in most of the country, but with an expected rise in foreclosures over the next 12 months we need to maintain a healthy level of ready buyers to absorb the inventory. An extension of the tax credit is critical to preserve incentives for financially qualified buyers to enter the market,” Yun said.

He added that many buyers had been on the sidelines during the past few years, waiting for signs of stabilization. “Now that the market is showing some momentum, we have an opportunity to achieve a more rapid and broader stabilization in home prices. Extending and expanding the tax credit also would help to keep other families from becoming upside down in their mortgages or risk foreclosure,” Yun said.

“When home prices show sustained gains, credit will become more widely available to other sectors because Wall Street will be able to price risks confidently. Stable home values will also allow more families to purchase consumer products and provide a strong boost for the broader economy.”

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said time is running very short for the existing tax credit. “Because it’s generally taking 60 days to close on a home after a contract is offered, buyers have little time to act to complete a purchase by the November 30 deadline,” he said. “There’s no guarantee what Congress might do, so there’s really no time to waste. Since Realtors® have unparalleled knowledge of local markets, they can also advise first-time buyers on any additional state or local programs that might be able to offer them financial assistance, and help them close on a home before the tax credit expires.”

Total housing inventory at the end of August fell 10.8% to 3.62 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 9.3-month supply in July. Unsold inventory totals are 16.4% lower than a year ago. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $177,700 in August, down 12.5% from August 2008. Distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell for 15 to 20% less than traditional homes. Single-family home sales fell 2.% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.48 million in August from a level of 4.61 million in July, but are 2.55 higher than the 4.37 million-unit pace in August 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $177,500 in August, down 12.1% from a year ago. Existing condominium and co-op sales slipped 1.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 620,000 units in August from a spike of 630,000 in July, but are 10.1% higher than the 563,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price was $179,300 in August, which is 15.7% below August 2008.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast declined 2.2% to an annual pace of 910,000 in August, but are 5.8% above August 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $241,100, which is 10.5% below a year ago. Existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 6.6% in August to a level of 1.14 million but are unchanged from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $149,900, down 10.4% from August 2008. In the South, existing-home sales were down 3.1% to an annual pace of 1.89 million in August but are 1.6% above August 2008. The median price in the South was $157,400, which is 11.0% below a year ago. Existing-home sales in the West declined 2.7% to an annual rate of 1.16 million in August but are 7.4% higher than a year ago. The median price in the West was $220,500, down 12.2% from August 2008.

Short sales spread across real estate market, leaving frustration in their wake

As more homeowners find themselves underwater -- owing more on their mortgage than their home is currently worth -- and unable to make the monthly mortgage payments, many are turning to short sales, which allow a homeowner to sell their home for less than owed on the mortgage. Short sales can be a win-win situation for all parties, because they enable home buyers to purchase properties in desirable neighborhoods and at favorable prices.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

• Theoretically, short sales should be a win-win for the bank and the homeowner. Although the bank does not receive the full amount owed on the mortgage, it also does not incur the costs of foreclosure and/or eviction, if necessary. Many homeowners also prefer short sales because it is less damaging to their credit scores than a foreclosure. However, many real estate experts say that the majority of banks are reluctant to approve short sales, and often let properties go into foreclosure, even when there are reasonable offers on the property. In addition to considering the price, most lenders also take into consideration whether the homeowner can demonstrate financial hardship. If the homeowner is capable of making payments, many lenders will try to work out a loan modification, rather than a short sale.

• Unlike foreclosed properties, which may be run-down and vacant for many months, short-sale properties are likely to be better maintained, as most owners may still live in the home.

• Short sales often are more time intensive than traditional transactions and often require additional paperwork. Due to the large number of offers on short sales, many take as long as a few months to receive approval. If information or required forms are missing or incomplete, the bank may set the offer aside, which could delay the process and cause the property to go into foreclosure. To expedite the process, sellers should work closely with their REALTOR® to provide all of the necessary paperwork.

• Working with a REALTOR® who has experience with short sales can help both sellers and home buyers during the transaction. A seasoned REALTOR® will be able to serve as the mediator between the seller and the lender, and lead to a successful transaction.

• It is important to remember that in a short sale, although the seller may be anxious about selling the property and willing to accept any offer, it is ultimately up to the lender to determine if, and at what price, the property can be sold. Home buyers should work closely with their REALTOR® to submit realistic offers.

Existing Home Supply Falls By Nearly A Year

As reported by the National Association of REALTORS®, the number of Existing Home Sales dipped last month, ending the metric's 5-month winning streak.

Newspaper headlines today are overwhelmingly negative on housing. You'd almost believe this year's housing recovery had ended. 

That's hardly the case.

See, the other side of the Existing Home Sales story is that -- while the number of units sold did fall by 3 percent -- the months of existing supply fell by nearly a year.

To home buyers and home sellers, this is huge.  Home prices are based on supply and demand and with supplies plummeting, it means that home prices are poised to rise.

Indeed, dwindling inventory isn't "news" to today's buyers.  Multiple offer situations have been common since the start of the summer and, should supplies fall further, they may soon be the home-buying rule rather than the exception.

Since peaking in November 2008, existing home supplies are down 23%.

CURRENT MORTGAGE RATES
9 / 24 / 09

Conforming to $417,000

30 YR Fixed 4.750%

High Balance Conforming to $729,000

30 YR Fixed 5.000%

Jumbo to $3,000,000

30 YR Fixed 6.000%
10 / 1 ARM 5.500%
5 / 1 ARM 5.000%

All rates are for 60 Day Lock with 1 point


GREAT TIME TO BUY OR SELL WHILE RATES ARE LOW!
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A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (September 23, 2009 Edition)

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

It also reiterated plans to support the mortgage market to the tune of $1.5 trillion.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy is "picking up following its severe downturn" and that financial markets have "improved further".

It's the second consecutive post-FOMC statement in which the Fed appears somewhat optimistic -- a signal that the recession will end soon, or has already ended.

That said, the economy still has some soft spots and the Fed made a point to single them out.  Each poses a distinct threat to economic recovery.

1. Ongoing job losses
   
2. Sluggish income growth
   
3. Tight credit conditions

Also in its statement, the Fed confirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent "for an extended period" and to honor its $1.25 trillion commitment to the mortgage bond market.

However, the FOMC changed its timeframe on the mortgage-backed bond buys, extending its deadline to March 2010.  This move should help the Fed keep mortgage rates from rising too high as the economic expansion takes hold.

Market reaction to the Fed's press release is positive.  After an early day sell-off that drove rates higher by about a quarter-percent, most of the pressure is easing.  Pricing is worse on the day overall, but well off its lows.

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is November 3-4, 2009.

Home Prices Rise Again In July

As reported by the government, home prices are rising nationwide, up 0.3 percent in July.

Furthermore, versus November 2008, the Home Price Index has clawed back to unchanged.

The housing market appears to be holding its own.

However, we have to be careful about putting our full faith in the Federal Housing Finance Agency's data.  It's somewhat flawed.

1. The Home Price Index is a national statistic and all real estate is local
   
2. The Home Price Index's methodology specifically excludes key housing demographics

As an obvious example, HPI only accounts for homes with Fannie Mae- or Freddie Mac-backed mortgage. Lately, the percentage of homes meeting that description is shrinking. 

As FHA financing rises in popularity, Fannie and Freddie back far fewer loans than in the past.  Furthermore, the HPI sample set also excludes newly-built homes and multi-unit properties.

Because of these exclusions, some analysts call the HPI incomplete.  The same could be said of all home price metrics, however -- including the venerable Case-Shiller Index.

Therefore, what should be of interest to today's buyers and sellers is that all of "popular" home valuation models seem to be telling the same story -- home prices have stopped falling and look like they're beginning to rebound.

For a region-by-region breakdown of the Home Price Index, visit the FHFA website.

Should You Lock Your Mortgage Rate In Advance Of Tomorrow's Federal Reserve Announcement?

The Federal Open Market Committee starts a 2-day meeting today in Washington. 

The scheduled get-together ends at 2:15 PM ET Wednesday after which the FOMC will issue a press release to the markets.

Consider locking your mortgage in advance of the press release. 

The FOMC meets 8 times annually and its adjournments are among the biggest market-movers of the year. 

The Fed's post-meeting press release is a direct look into the mind of the Federal Reserve and Wall Street is looking for clues anywhere it can find them.

After its August 2009 meeting, the FOMC said in its press release:

1. Financial markets have improved, relative
   
2. Household spending remains constrained
   
3. Although weak, the economy is "leveling off"

Since then, however, credit risks have lessened on Wall Street, consumer spending have shown signs of life and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the recession is "very likely over".

This is why tomorrow's FOMC press release is so important.  Markets don't expect the Fed to raise or lower the Fed Funds Rate, but they do expect the Fed to shed light on its next series of moves.

If the Fed alludes to inflation and stronger growth ahead, mortgage rates should rise. By contrast, reference to slower growth ahead should help keep rates steady.

The FOMC is expected to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent -- the lowest it's been in history.  However, it's what the Fed says Wednesday that will matter more than what the its does.

If you're floating a mortgage rate or wondering if the time is right to lock, the safe approach is to lock prior to 2:15 PM ET Wednesday.