Using Home Generators? Here's How To Stay Safe.

Carbon monoxide is an odorless, colorless, poisonous gas. It kills more 400 people die in their homes each year.

Carbon monoxide poisoning is especially common during periods of power outage. This is because homeowners throughout Tustin fire up their personal home power generators.

Home generators are a leading cause of poisoning by carbon monoxide and, in this 4-minute from NBC's The Today Show, you'll learn about home generators, how they operate, and the safety measures everyone homeowner should undertake.

A few basic home generator safety rules, as described in the interview, include :

• Never modify a generator or its engine
• Keep a 10-foot distance between the generator and your home
• Always point the generator's exhaust away from your home

Furthermore, make sure your home has an ample supply of carbon monoxide detectors, and that they're operational.

One of the video's highlights is clever illustration employing a vase of water and a dash of red dye. The demonstration shows just how few carbon monoxide particles are required to cause injury and/or death to a person in your household.

Therefore, if you own a home generator, take 4 minutes watch this video. Safety when home generators is paramount to your health.

Housing Starts Rising; New Construction Turns The Corner?

Another day, another signal that the market for newly-built homes is improving.

Single-Family Housing Starts rose to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 430,000 units in October -- a 4 percent increase from September and the highest reading in 3 months.

A "Housing Start" is a home on which ground has been broken.

The increase in surprised Wall Street analysts, although it shouldn't have.  

Earlier this week, the National Association of Homebuilders showed that Homebuilder Confidence is at its highest point since May 2010, the effect of better market conditions and more sold units. Rising housing starts amid a lift in builder confidence is to be expected -- the two metrics have moved with loose correlation since mid-2000.

However, as with everything in real estate, Single-Family Housing Starts volume varied by location. The nation's 4 regions posted wide-ranging results :

• Northeast Region : + 10.0% from September
• Midwest Region : -4.1% from September
• South Region : +11.3% from September
• West Region : -10.2% from September

Buyers of new construction in Irvine can infer two key points from last month's data.

First, with more homes will being built, home supply should rise, thereby softening pressure on rising home prices. This should help keep homes affordable.

However, the second point is that, with builder confidence rising, buyers are less likely to win price concessions and "free upgrades" in negotiations.

The last 6 weeks of 2011 may be your optimal time to buy new construction. Home prices remain affordable and mortgage rates are rock-bottom. In addition, because there are typically fewer active home buyers during the holidays, you'll be more likely to locate one of the few remaining new construction "deals".

Talk to your real estate agent about local trends and new construction. 

Homebuilders Getting Optimistic; Higher Home Prices Ahead?

Homebuilder confidence continues to rise.

Just two months after falling to a multi-month low, the Housing Market Index surged again in November, climbing another three points to 21. It's the second straight month that the HMI posted a 3-point gain, catapulting the index to an 18-month.

The Housing Market Index is monthly report from the National Association of Homebuilders. It's meant to measure confidence among the nation's homebuilders, scored on a scale of 1-100.

When homebuilder confidence reads 50 or better, it reflects favorable conditions for homebuilders. Readings below 50 reflect unfavorable conditions.

The Housing Market Index has not read north of 50 since April 2006.

As an index, the HMI is actually a composite reading; the result of three separate surveys sent to homebuilders each month. The National Association of Homebuilders asks it members about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume over the next 6 months; and current "foot traffic".

In November, builder responses were stronger in all 3 categories :

• Current Single-Family Sales : 20 (+3 from October)
• Projected Single-Family Sales : 25 (+1 from October)
• Buyer Foot Traffic : 15 (+1 from October)

And, beyond the headline data, there is an important, noteworthy item in this month's Housing Market Index.

In November, "Current Single Family Sales" climbed 3 points for the second straight month, and is now at the highest point since May 2010 -- the month after last year's home buyer tax credit expired. And, this increase in sales volume is occurring as new home construction is falling, thereby reducing home inventory nationwide.

That's an important point for Irvine home buyers.

With more new home sales and fewer new home listings, prices are likely to increase into 2012. Especially with home builders predicting higher sales levels over the next 6 months, and seeing higher levels of buyer foot traffic through their properties today.

For now, though, home prices are stable and mortgage rates are low. This creates low-cost homeownership throughout California , and helps new home construction remain affordable.

If you're in the market for new home construction, the next 60 days may prove to be your best time to get "a deal".

Government Releases Additional HARP Guidance For Underwater Homeowners

Tuesday, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac unveiled lender instructions for the government's revamped HARP program, kick-starting a potential refinance frenzy across California and nationwide.

HARP stands for Home Affordable Refinance Program. The updated program is meant to give "underwater homeowners" an opportunity to refinance at today's low mortgage rates.

In the two-plus years since its launch, HARP's first iteration helped fewer than 900,000 homeowners. HARP II, by contrast, is expected to reach millions.

Lenders begin taking HARP II loan applications December 1, 2011.

To apply for HARP, applicants must first meet 4 basic criteria :

1. The existing mortgage must be guaranteed by Fannie Mae or by Freddie Mac
2. The existing mortgage must have been securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac prior to June 1, 2009
3. The mortgage payment history must be perfect going back 6 months
4. The mortgage payment history may not include more than one 30-day late payment going back 12 months 

If the above criteria are met, HARP applicants will like what they see.

For HARP applicants, loan-level pricing adjustments are waived in full for loans with terms of 20 years or fewer; and maxed at 0.75 for loans with terms in excess of 20 years.

This will result in dramatically lower mortgages rates for HARP applicants -- especially those with credit scores below 740. Some applicants will find HARP mortgage rates lower than for a "traditional" conventional mortgage.

In addition, HARP applicants are exempted from the standard waiting period following a bankruptcy or foreclosure, which is 4 years and 7 years, respectively.

These two items are inclusionary and should help HARP reach a broader U.S. audience.

HARP contains exclusionary policies, too.

1. The "unlimited LTV" feature only applies to fixed rate loans or 30 years or fewer. ARMs are capped at 105% loan-to-value.
2. Applicants must be "requalified" if the proposed mortgage payment exceeds the current payment by 20%.
3. Applicants must benefit from either a lower payment, or a "more stable" product to qualify

And, of course, HARP can only be used once. 

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will adopt slight variations of the same HARP guidelines so make sure to check with your loan officer for the complete list of HARP eligibility requirements.

Foreclosure Filings Climbing; 4 States Account For Half Of Nationwide Activity

Foreclosed homes are a hot market throughout California -- and supplies are ramping up.

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, October's foreclosure filings rose 7 percent to 231,000 filings nationwide.

A "foreclosure filing" is any one of the following foreclosure-related events : A default notice on a home; a scheduled auction for a home; or, a bank repossession of a home. Because of this definition, a single home can account for up to 3 foreclosure filings -- one from each category. 

Because of this, we may glean more relevant insight into the foreclosure market by separating RealtyTrac's foreclosure report into "event types".

• Default Notices : Up 10% from September 2011; Down 31% from October 2010.
• Scheduled Auctions : Up 8% from September 2011; Down 38% from October 2010.
• Bank Repossessions : Up 4% from September 2011; Down 27% from October 2010.

These breakdowns suggest that, although improved as compared to last year, the foreclosure market is growing. At least, it's growing in some parts of the country. We can't forget that -- like everything real estate -- foreclosures are a local phenomenon. 

In October, just 4 states accounted for more than half of the country's foreclosure filings. Those four states -- California, Florida, Michigan and Illinois -- represent just 26% of the U.S. population.

Even on a per household basis, the figures remain disproportionate :

• Top 10 Foreclosure States : 1 foreclosure per 341 households, on average
• Bottom 10 Foreclosure States : 1 foreclosure per 7,434 households, on average

The nationwide foreclosure rate was 1 foreclosure per 563 households.

As a Tustin home buyer, foreclosures are worth watching. They account for 18% of home resales nationwide and, in some markets, can be bought at steep discounts versus a comparable "non-distressed" home. That is part of their appeal, in fact.

But just because foreclosed properties can be a "deal", it doesn't mean you should rush to buy one. Buying a foreclosed home from a bank is different from buying a non-foreclosed home from a "person". The contracts and negotiation process are different, and foreclosed homes are sometimes sold as-is.

"As-is" means "this home may have defects".

Therefore, if you plan to buy a foreclosed home, talk with a real estate professional first. You can learn a lot about the housing market online, but with respect to writing an offer on a property, you'll want an experienced agent on your side.

Using Space Heaters? Use This Safety Advice.

Space heaters are popular among homeowners in Irvine because, as portable appliances, they can heat a small space quickly and inexpensively. It requires less energy to run a space heater than to raise the temperature of an entire home by a few degrees.

However, space heaters can be dangerous, too.

In its November 2011 report, the National Fire Protection Association reveals that heating equipment was involved in an estimated 58,900 home structure fires, 480 civilian deaths, 1,520 civilian injuries and more than $1.1 billion in damage.

Space heaters caused a disproportionate percentage of the accidents : 

• 79% of all home heating-related civilian deaths 
• 66% of all home heating-related civilian injuries 
• 52% of all home heating-related property damage

If you use space heaters, therefore, please remember to read (and follow) the manufacturer's instructions for proper usage, and to obey basic safety standards.

First, never place anything flammable within three feet of a space heater. Space heaters get very hot, very quickly and can ignite rugs, paper and curtains.

Next, make sure your space heater is placed on the floor, on level ground. Do not rest it on books, or on furniture.

Also, make sure to turn space heaters off when leaving a room, or when going to bed. Space heaters are not meant to replace whole-home heating and should not be left unattended under any circumstance.

The Underwriters Laboratory makes a list of general safety tips available on its website. Considering how much damage space heaters can cause, the list is worth committing to memory.

Banks Resume Tightening Mortgage Guidelines

As part of its quarterly survey to member banks nationwide, the Federal Reserve asked senior loan officers whether last quarter's "prime" residential mortgage guidelines have tightened, loosened, or remained as-is.

A "prime" borrower is defined as one with a well-documented, high-performance credit history; with low debt-to-income ratios; and who chooses to finance a home via a traditional fixed-rate or adjustable-rate mortgage product.

After a 2-year easing cycle, the nation's biggest bank banks report that they've reversed course, and are raising the bar on mortgage approvals.

For the period July-September 2010, 88% of responding loan officers admitted to tightening their prime guidelines, or leaving them "basically unchanged".

If you've applied for a home loan of late, you've experienced this first-hand.

High delinquency rates and defaults since 2007 have caused the banks to rethink what they will lend, and to whom. As a result, today's mortgage lenders scrutinize assets, incomes, and credit scores to make sure that nothing "slips by".

For today's home buyers and would-be refinancers, the mortgage approval process can be challenging as compared to how it looked just 18 months ago.

• Minimum credit scores requirements are higher today
• Downpayment/equity requirements are larger today
• Debt-to-Income ratio requirements are more strict today

In other words, although mortgage rates are the lowest that they've been in history, fewer applicants can qualify. And, with more the housing market still in recovery, it's likely that guidelines will tighten again in 2012.

Therefore, if you're among the many people in Irvine wondering if it's the right time to buy a home or refinance, consider that, although mortgage rates may fall, approval standards may not.

The best rate in the world won't matter if you're not eligible to lock it.

This Holiday Season, Think Twice Before Saving 15 Percent At The Register

With Halloween behind us, retailers are in the Holiday Spirit. Businesses know that consumers spent a median $556 on holiday gifts last year and they want this year to be just as strong.

That's why it's barely November and, already, Black Friday ads clog our mailboxes and the airwaves. Retailers want our dollars and they're offering great deals to early shoppers.

There's one discount a smart shopper should think twice, however -- the ever-present "Open A Charge Card Today And Save 15%" promotion. In the short-term, deals like this will save money. 

Over the long-term, however, opening a charge card could cost you much, much more -- especially if you plan to refinance your home or buy a new one.

Applying for a charge card can lower your credit score up to 85 points.  

According to the myFICO.com website, as a category, "New Credit" accounts for 10% of your 850 possible credit points, comprising the following credit traits :

• Your number of recently opened accounts
• Your number of recent credit inquiries
• Time elapsed since your recent credit inquiries
• Your proportion of new accounts to all accounts

Each trait is a negative in the FICO-scoring credit algorithm which means that, with each in-store charge card application, your credit score is likely to fall. How far your score will fall depends on the rest of your credit profile.

Meanwhile, low FICO scores correlate to higher loan fees.

Using a real-life example, assuming 20% equity in a home, for either purchase or refinance, look how loan fees for a $200,000 conforming mortgage change by FICO score :

• 740 FICO : There will be no added loan costs
• 720 FICO : You'll have a 0.250% increase in loan costs, or $500
• 700 FICO : You'll have a 0.750% increase in loan costs, or $1,500
• 680 FICO : You'll have a 1.500% increase in loan costs, or $3,000
• 660 FICO : You'll have a 2.500% increase in loan costs, or $5,000

You can see first-hand how expensive low credit score can be -- much more costly than the 15% saved at the mall. That's why people planning to refinance to today's low rates and soon-to-be Irvine homeowners, shouldn't rush to save 15% at the register. 

For people in want of a mortgage, high FICO scores are worth protecting.

Tips For Maximizing Your Home's Appraised Value

A home appraisal is an independent opinion of your home's value, performed by a licensed home appraiser. Appraisals are part of the traditional home purchase process, and lenders require them for most refinances, too.

Appraisers are trained professionals. First, they derive a base for your home's value based on the recent sales prices of homes that are comparable to yours in terms of bedrooms, bathrooms, style, and square footage.

Then, accounting for features and amenities that make your home different, the appraiser applies "adjustments" to that base value.

This methodology is called the "Sales Comparison" approach and the result is your home's appraised value.

It's the most common appraisal method used by lenders.

As a homeowner in Irvine , you can't affect the sales prices of your home's comparable properties, but you can help your appraiser understand how your home stands apart from these homes. This, in turn, can affect your home's adjustments, resulting in a higher appraised value.

With home appraisals, every valuation dollar can matter. With that in mind, here are a few tips for maximizing your home's appraised value :

1. Be home for your appraisal so you can answer the appraiser's question, if there are any.
2. Mention any new roofing, flooring, HVAC, plumbing, or windows you've installed since purchase.
3. Don't mention projects or repairs you're "about to undertake". Appraisers don't credit for unfinished projects.
4. Make minor household fixes prior to the appraisal (e.g.; leaky sink, running toilet, peeling paint). 
5. Present a tidy home. This can contribute to a higher "overall condition" adjustment.

Lastly, schedule the appraisal for a time that is convenient for your entire household. An appraiser needs to see, measure, and take photos of every room in your home. If a room's door is closed because of a resting child, for example, the appraiser may need to schedule a second appointment to complete the appraisal, and that can raise your appraisal costs.

Your Home Has A Smoke Detector. Are You Sure It's Really Working?

An estimated 356,000 in-home fires caused more than $7 billion in U.S. residential property damage in 2009, according to data from the United States Fire Administration.

The fires caused more than 12,000 injuries, and killed more than 2,500 people in Irvine and nationwide.

Unfortunately, many of affected homes did have smoke detectors -- they just weren't working properly. This is why it's critically important to test your home's smoke detectors at least once annually.

When you test a smoke detector, you're making sure that the alarm will trigger in the event of a real-life fire. A proper test will confirm that the batteries have useful life, and that the device's smoke detection components are operating as expected.

To test your smoke detector, here's what to do :

1. Make a checklist of your home's smoke detectors
2. Go to the first smoke detector
3. Ask a helper to go to the farthest point from the detector within your home
4. Press the smoke detector's testing button up to 10 seconds to activate the alarm
5. Confirm with your helper that the alarm could be heard from his/her location
6. Note on the checklist whether the smoke detector worked, or needs replacement

You can also take your test a step further.

Just because the smoke detector's alarm can be heard from the farthest point in your house doesn't mean that the alarm will sound in the event of a real fire. Therefore, you may want to buy a "smoke test".

Smoke tests are aerosol cans that simulate a bona fide in-home fire. You can buy them for less than $15 at your local hardware store, or at Amazon.com. If your smoke detector fails to sound its alarm in the presence of a "real fire", make sure you replace it right away.

The Most Expensive ZIP Codes In The Country (2011 Edition)

In the housing market, amenities and location have as much to do with a home's value as the everyday forces of supply-and-demand. Whereas the latter causes home values to rise and fall over time, the former creates a starting point for said values. 

Where you live -- and the features of your home -- determine your home's price range. Naturally, homes in some areas are consistently higher-valued than homes in others.

Using data compiled by real estate market data firm Altos Research, Forbes Magazine presents America's 10 most expensive ZIP codes. California and the New York Metro area dominate the list.

1. Alpine, NJ (07620) : $4,550,000
2. Atherton, CA (94027) : $4,295,000
3. Sagaponack, NY (11962) : $3.595,000
4. Hillsborough, CA (94010) : $3,499,000
5. Beverly Hills, CA (90210) : $3,469,891
6. New York, NY (10012) : $3,392,574
7. New York, NY (10013) : $3,317,962
8. Water Mill, NY (11976) : $3,300,000
9. Montecito, CA (93108) : $3,099,348
10. Old Westbury, NY (11568) : $3,095,000

In fact, of the top 50 most expensive ZIP codes, only 6 are located outside of California and New York regions. 3 are Colorado resort towns -- Snowmass (81654), Aspen (81611) and Telluride (81435) -- one is in Maryland, one is in Florida, and the last is in Washington State.

Chicago-suburb Kenilworth (60043) is the top-ranked Midwest ZIP code. It placed 86th overall.

The Forbes list may be interesting but, to home buyers or sellers in Newport Beach , it should not be the final word in home values. Real estate is a local market which means that -- even within a given ZIP code -- prices can vary based on street and neighborhood.

Look past general data and get specific. Talk to your real estate agent for local market pricing.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (November 2, 2011 Edition)

Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

The vote was nearly unanimous, with just one dissenting voter. There were 3 dissenters at each of the FOMC's last two meetings.

In its press release, the Federal Reserve presented an improved outlook for the U.S. economy, noting that since its last meeting in September, there's new evidence that the economy "strengthened somewhat" in the third quarter.

One example cited is that consumer and business spending continues to rise while inflationary pressures on the economy remain modest. This indicates controlled growth -- a plus in a recovering economy.   

The economy remains slowed by a number of factors, though, as noted by the Fed :

1. "Continuing weakness" in the labor market
2. Softness in commercial real estate
3. A "depressed" housing market

In response to mixed economic conditions, the FOMC opted to "do nothing" today; it introduced no new monetary policy, and revised none of its existing market stimulus. The Fed re-iterated its plan to leave the Fed Funds Rate in its current range near 0.000 percent "at least until mid-2013″ and affirmed "Operation Twist" -- the program in which the Fed sells Treasury securities with a maturity of 3 years or less, and uses the proceeds to buy mortgage bonds with maturity between 6 and 30 years.

Mortgage market reaction to the FOMC statement has been negative this afternoon. Mortgage rates throughout California are rising because analysts expected the Fed to launch new, bigger stimulus plans. It didn't. Rates may drift higher for the new few days, too.

Therefore, it today's mortgage rates fit your household budget, consider locking in a mortgage rate. Mortgage rates are very low right now, relative to history. It may not last.

The FOMC's next meeting -- its last scheduled meeting of the year -- is December 13, 2011.

More Risk To Home Affordability : Friday's Jobs Report

Within the next 48 hours, mortgage rates may get bouncy. The Federal Open Market Committee will adjourn from a 2-day meeting and October's Non-Farm Payrolls report is due for release.

Of the two market movers, it's the Non-Farm Payrolls report that may cause the most damage. Rate shoppers across California would do well to pay attention.

Published monthly, the "jobs report" provides sector-by-sector employment data from the month prior. It's a product of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and includes the national Unemployment Rate.

In September, the economy added 103,000 jobs, and job creation from the two months prior was shown to be higher by 99,000 jobs higher than originally reported. This was a huge improvement over the initial August release which showed zero new jobs created.

When September's jobs report was released, mortgage rates spiked. This is because of the correlation between jobs and the U.S. economy. There are a lot of economic "positives" when the U.S. workforce is growing.

1. Consumer spending increases
2. Governments start more projects
3. Businesses make more investment

Each of these items leads to additional hiring, and the cycle continues.

Wall Street expects that 90,000 jobs were created in October 2011. If the actual number of jobs created exceeds this estimate, it will be considered a positive for the economy, and mortgage rates should climb as Wall Street dumps mortgage-backed bonds in favor of equities.

Conversely, if the number of new jobs falls short of 90,000, it will be considered a disappointment, and mortgage rates should rise.

There is a lot of risk in floating a mortgage rate today. The Federal Reserve could make a statement that drives rates higher, and Friday's job report could do the same. If you're under contract for a home or planning to refinance, eliminate your interest rate risk.

Lock your mortgage rate today.

Make Your Mortgage Rate Strategy : The Federal Reserve Starts A 2-Day Meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee begins a scheduled, 2-day meeting today, the seventh of its 8 scheduled meetings this year, and the eighth Fed meeting overall.

The FOMC is a 12-person sub-committee within the Federal Reserve. It's the group responsible for setting the nation's monetary policy and is led by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The FOMC's most well-known role is as the steward of the Fed Funds Rate. This is the overnight rate at which U.S. banks borrow money from each other. The Fed Funds Rate is a unique, "banking" interest rate, and should not be confused with consumer interest rates, a category which includes "mortgage rates".

Mortgage rates are not set by the Federal Reserve. 

Rather, mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds. If mortgage rates correlated to the FOMC's Fed Funds Rate, the chart at right would be linear.

That said, the FOMC does exert influence on mortgage markets.

After its FOMC meetings, the Federal Reserve issues a press release to the public. In it, the central banker summarizes economic conditions nationwide, highlighting threats to the economy and areas of strength.

When the Federal Reserve's statement is generally "positive", mortgage rates tend to rise. This is because a strengthening economy invites investors to assume more risk, spurring equity markets at the expense of all bonds types, including the mortgage-backed kind.

When bond markets lose, mortgage rates rise.

Conversely, when the Fed is generally negative, bond markets gain, pushing mortgage rates lower throughout California.

The Fed can also influence mortgage rates via new policy.

At its last meeting, the FOMC launched a new, $400-billion round of mortgage-market stimulus known as Operation Twist. The added mortgage-bond support led mortgage rates lower post-FOMC meeting. 

The Fed may expand Operation Twist as soon as Wednesday afternoon. It may also take no such steps at all. Unfortunately, there are few clues about what the Federal Reserve may do next, if anything at all. As a result, mortgage rates will be a moving target for the next 36 hours. First, they'll be volatile before of the Fed's statement. Then, they'll be volatile after the Fed's statement.

Even if the Fed does nothing, mortgage rates will change so your safest play is to lock a mortgage rate ahead of Wednesday's 2:15 PM ET adjournment.

There too much risk in floating.

Lower Your Fall/Winter Energy Bill With Ceiling Fans

November is here with many parts of the country are already feeling the chill. This weekend, a nor'easter dropped up to 20 inches of snow in cities along the eastern seaboard  -- a reminder that winter is coming.

No matter where you live, though, the seasonal change in temperature throughout Irvine serves as an excellent reminder to reset the blades on your home's ceiling fans.

Ceiling fans don't warm or cool air, specifically. Instead, they circulate air which can have the effect of making a room feel warmer in the winter months, and cooler in the summer months.

When it's cold outside, ceiling fans push warm air down from the ceiling, balancing the heat within a room. This can make a room feel 4-6 degrees warmer. Then, during warmer months, ceiling fans push a room's cold air back into circulation, which creates a windchill effect, of sorts.

This, too, can change a room's temperate 4-6 degrees.

The secret to a ceiling fan is in the rotation direction of its blades. 

• When fan blades rotate clockwise, the fan makes a room feel warmed
• When fan blades rotate counter-clockwise, the fan make a room feel cooler.

This Weather Channel video explains how it works.

If your home is without ceiling fans, consider installing one (or more). Ceiling fans are economical and "green", using the equivalent energy of a 100-watt light bulb, while lowering your home's energy costs.

Plus, they're relatively simple to install. 

Tutorial videos are available online for the do-it-yourselfers, or just call a qualified electrician for assistance.

Installing a ceiling fan is a 1-hour project.

Pending Home Sales Index Slips For 4th Straight Month

Nationwide, fewer homes are going under contract to sell.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, the Pending Home Sales Index fell 5 percent last month. September marks the fourth consecutive month in which the index has dropped. 

The Pending Home Sales Index is a monthly index which measures the number of homes under contract to sell, but not yet closed. As such, it's among the few "forward-looking" housing indicators; a data set meant to predict future home sales. 

80% of homes under contract close within 2 months so, if the September Pending Home Sales Index is to be believed, we should expect home sales to decline through October and November. 

And that's before we account for cancelled contracts.

Also from the National Association of REALTORS®, we learn that 18 percent of homes under contract failed to close in September. This is double the failure rate from September 2010 and it, too, should drag Existing Home Sales volume lower this fall.

On a seasonally-adjusted, regional basis, the Pending Home Sales Index fell everywhere. 

• Northeast Region: -4.7% from August
• Midwest Region : -6.2% from August
• South Region : -5.5% from August
• West Region : -2.1% from August

For home buyers and sellers in Newport Beach , though, regional data remains too broad to be useful. Housing markets are local, meaning that each block on each street on each city has its own distinct economy. When 9 states are grouped into a single "region", it's neither helpful nor relevant to people making buy/sell decisions.

That said, the Pending Home Sales Index remains important because it's about housing, and housing is a keystone of the U.S. economic recovery.

The market looks ideal for buyers. Home prices are rising, but slowly; and mortgage rates remain near rock-bottom levels. Home affordability is high and should remain that way for the next few weeks.

If you're shopping for a home, it's an excellent time to go under contract.

New Home Inventory Keeps Sinking

Home builders continue to sell homes and work through inventory.

According to data from the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold in September jumped 6 percent from the month prior, beating analyst expectations. On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, buyers in California and nationwide closed on 313,000 newly-built homes last month.

It's the highest reading since April and a major reason why the available number of new homes for sale is shrinking. 

As compared to September 2010, there are 19% fewer homes for sale nationwide. At today's sales pace, the complete new home inventory would be "sold out" in 6.2 months – the quickest sell-out pace since the April 2010 federal home buyer tax credit expiration.

It's no wonder builder confidence is rising.

After averaging 15 through the first 9 months of the year, homebuilder confidence jumped 4 points for October, carried by low mortgage rates and the expectation for a strong winter/spring selling season.

For buyers in Newport Beach , this could be construed as a housing market-shifting signal. As builder confidence rises, it becomes more difficult to negotiate for upgrades and price reductions on a new home. "Great deals" get scarce.

Furthermore, it's unlikely that mortgage rates will sustain their current, ultra-low levels into 2012. Rising rates lead to higher housing payments on a month-to-month basis. 

If you're in the market for a newly-built home, in other words, today's homes may represent your best value of the year.

The Government's Revamped HARP Program For Underwater Homeowners

The Federal Home Finance Agency announced big changes to its Home Affordable Refinance Program Monday. More commonly called HARP, the Home Affordable Refinance Program is meant to give "underwater homeowners" opportunity to refinance.

With average, 30-year fixed rate mortgages still hovering near 4.000 percent, there are more than a million homeowners in Irvine and nationwide who stand to benefit from the program overhaul.

To qualify for the re-released HARP program, you must meet 4 basic criteria :

1. Your existing home loan must be guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac
2. Your home must be a 1- to 4-unit property
3. You must have a perfect mortgage payment history going back 6 months
4. You may not have had more than one 30-day late payment on your mortgage going back 12 months 

Most notable about the new HARP refinance program, though, is that the government is waiving loan-to-value requirements on a HARP loans. Homeowners' participation in the program  are no longer restricted by their home's appraised value. In fact, the new HARP doesn't even require an appraisal, in most instances.

With the new HARP program, underwater mortgages can be refinanced without LTV limit or penalty.

According to the government's press release, pricing considerations for the new HARP program will be released on or before November 15, 2011; and lenders are expected to be offering the program as of December 1, 2011.

If you think you may be eligible, first confirm that either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac is backing your loan. Both groups provide a simple, online lookup.

• Fannie Mae loan lookup : http://www.fanniemae.com/loanlookup/
• Freddie Mac loan lookup : https://ww3.freddiemac.com/corporate/

If your loan cannot be located on either of these two sites, your current mortgage is not backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, and is not HARP-eligible.

The FHFA's official press release contains an FAQ section. In it, you'll find minimum qualification standards, as well as information related to condominiums and to mortgage insurance.

The HARP program is meant to help a wide group of homeowners, but each applicant's situation is unique. For specific HARP questions, be sure to talk with a loan officer. 

How To Change Your Doorbell

When we move into a home, we make changes. Appliances get replaced, rooms get painted, and floors get refinished or recarpeted. It part of how we make a home "ours".

One item we tend to skip, though, is the changing of the doorbell. In most Newport Beach homes, the existing doorbell is "good enough". 

Well, if you've ever had a mind to change your home's hard-wired doorbell system, the good news is that changing your doorbell is a simple, do-it-yourself project. Whether you want chimes, songs, or the traditional ding-dong, all you need is a screwdriver, some tape, and the new doorbell system.

This 2-minute video from Lowe's maps it out :

1. Cut the power to your doorbell from your circuit breaker
2. Unscrew the doorbell face plate
3. Replace the face plate with your new doorbell
4. Locate your in-home receiver and remove the chime system
5. Replace the chime system with your new system

The video also includes helpful tips such as how to use tape to prevent "losing" wires in your walls, and how to label your wires for faster re-wiring.

Changing a doorbell is a quick, 1-hour project. Use the video's guidance to make you don't miss a step.

Despite 18% Contract Failure Rate, Home Resales Stay Strong

Despite fewer homes for sale nationwide, the number of home resales remains steady.

According to data from the National Association of REALTORS®, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, September's Existing Home Sales eased by 150,000 units, falling to 4.91 million units nationwide.

An "existing home" is a home that's been previously occupied and, despite last month's drop, September's sales volume remains the second-highest on record since April 2011.

This statistic is noteworthy for two reasons :

1. There are 9.9% fewer homes available for sale as compared to 12 months ago
2. Contract "failures" are twice as high as compared to September 2010, now averaging 18 percent nationwide

A contract failure is typically the result of homes not appraising for the purchase price; mortgage denials in the underwriting process; and, insurmountable home inspection issues.

Because sales volume is steady, we can infer that more buyers are "in the market" than the final sales tallies would have us believe. This notion is also evident in the Existing Home Supply data.

In September, the number of homes for sale fell by 69,000 nationwide. At the current pace of sales, it would take 8.5 months to "sell out" the complete national inventory. This is more than 2 months faster as compared to September 2010 -- a major improvement for the housing market and a sign that home prices should rise soon.

Today's Newport Beach market exemplifies Supply and Demand. Demand for homes is holding steady as home inventories fall. This creates pressure for home buyers to make offers, and multiple bidding situations become more common. Negotiation leverage shifts to the sellers and the result is that buyers pay higher prices for homes.

Thankfully, mortgage rates remain low. 

Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage ticked lower this week, averaging 4.11% nationwide with 0.8 discount points. This means that mortgage payments are lower by $46 per $100,000 borrowed as compared to the high-point of the year.

You may pay more for a new home, in other words, but you'll pay a lot less to finance it.

Finding Truth In September's Housing Starts Report

Headlines in newspapers can be misleading -- especially with respect to housing figures. Media coverage of the most recent Housing Starts data serves as an excellent illustration.

Wednesday, the Census Bureau released its September Housing Starts report. In it, the government said that national Housing Starts rose 15 percent in September as compared to August 2011, tallying 658,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis.

The September reading is the highest monthly reading since April 2010, the last month of last year's home buyer tax credit.

The sudden surge in starts is big news for a housing market that has struggled of late, and the press was eager to carry the story. Here is a sampling of some headlines:

• U.S. Housing Starts Rise 15%, Hit 17-Month High (MarketWatch)
• Home Building Jumps 15% in September (ABC)
• New Construction Surges In September (LA Times)

These headlines are each accurate. However, they're also misleading.

Yes, Housing Starts did surge in September, but if we remove the "5 or more units" grouping from the Census Bureau data -- the catgory that includes apartment buildings and condominium structures -- we're left with Single-Family Housing Starts and Single-Family Housing Starts rose just 1.7 percent last month.

That's a good number, but hardly a great one. And for home buyers and sellers throughout Irvine and nationwide, it's the Single-Family Housing Starts that matter most. Individuals like you and I don't buy entire apartment buildings. Most often, we buy single-family homes. Therefore, that's the data for which we should watch.

The good news is that media tales work in both directions.

Building Permits dropped 5 percent last month when the volatile 5-unit-or-more-units category was included from the math. Isolating for single-family homes, we find that permits were unchanged.

This is good housing because 82% of homes begin construction within 60 days of permit-issuance, hinting at a steady, late-fall housing market.

Homebuilder Confidence Rises on Surging Sales Volume, Foot Traffic

Homebuilder confidence is rebounding sharply.

Just one month after falling to a multi-month low, the Housing Market Index rebounded four points to 18 for October. It's the highest reading for the HMI since May 2010 -- the month after last year's homebuyer tax credit expiration.

The Housing Market Index is published monthly by the National Association of Homebuilders and is scored on a scale of 1-100. Readings above 50 indicate favorable conditions for homebuilders. Readings below 50 indicate unfavorable conditions.

The index has been below 50 since May 2006 -- a 66-month streak.

The Housing Market Index is a composite reading; the result of three separate surveys sent to home builders each month. Builders are asked about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume over the next 6 months; and current "foot traffic".

In October, builder responses were stronger in all 3 categories :

• Current single-family sales : 18 (+4 from September)
• Projected single-family sales : 24 (+7 from September)
• Buyer foot traffic : 14 (+3 from September)

Meanwhile, of particular interest to today's Irvine home buyers is that builders expect volume to surge over the next two seasons. And, with current sales volume rising and foot traffic strengthening, the fall and winter months could be strong ones in the new homes market.

In addition, the builder trade group press release states that rising costs for materials are squeezing building profit margins.

For buyers, it all adds up higher home prices ahead. As builders grow more confident about the housing market, they're less likely to make concessions on pricing or upgrades. Rising building costs fortify that argument. The "great deal" will be tougher to negotiate. 

At least mortgage rates are low.

Low mortgage rates are keeping homes affordable in California and nationwide. If you're looking for the right time to buy new construction, therefore, this month may be it.

Foreclosure Rate Drops For The 12th Straight Month

Foreclosure activity continues to slow throughout the United States.

According to data from RealtyTrac, a national foreclosure-tracking firm, the number of foreclosure filings dipped below 215,000 in September 2011, a 6 percent decrease from August.

A "foreclosure filing" is defined as any foreclosure-related action including Notice of Default, Scheduled Auction, or Bank Repossession.

September marks the 12th straight month in which foreclosure filings fell year-over-year.

There are several reasons why foreclosure filings are down, including an increase in the amount of time it takes banks to move a foreclosure through its pipeline. It now takes a nationwide average of 336 days from the date of initial default notice to bank repossession.

Some states work quicker than others, however, because of a combination of state law and personnel.

Homes in New York take an average of 986 days to foreclose, for example, the longest in the country. Homes in Texas foreclose the quickest, registering just 86 days.

As in prior months, bank repossessions remain concentrated by state. Just 6 states accounted for half of the country's REO last month:

• California : 16.6 percent
• Georgia : 8.5 percent
• Florida : 8.3 percent
• Texas : 6.2 percent
• Michigan : 6.1 percent
• Illinois : 5.2 percent

Collectively, these 6 states represent just 36 percent of the nation's population.

By contrast, the bottom 6 states were home to just 192 repossessions last month -- 0.3% of the national total. Those 6 states were Alaska, Wyoming, District of Columbia, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Vermont.

For home buyers in Tustin , shopping for foreclosed properties can be an excellent way to get "a deal". Foreclosed homes typically sell at discounts as compared to "non-foreclosed" homes, but are often sold "as-is". This means that homes listed for sale may be defective or out-of-code.

Before placing a bid on a foreclosed home, make sure that you're represented by an experienced real estate professional. 

Save Money By Preventing Water Heat Loss In Your Home

How much energy is your home wasting on water?

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, water heating can account for 25% of a home's energy use. This is a substantial percentage, representing thousands of dollars per year in energy costs.

The good news is there are multiple ways to increase your home's energy-efficiency with respect to heated water.

The Department of Energy provides a list. 

1. Reduce hot water usage : Fix leaks, install low-flow fixtures, and use high-efficiency clothes washers and dishwashers.
2. Lower the hot water temperature : 120ºF is ideal. Each 10ºF drop in temperature saves up to 5% and slows corrosion.
3. Insulate your water heater : A simple blanket wrap costs $25 and will save you up to 9% in costs
4. Insulate your water pipes : Water will be delivered 4ºF hotter which means lower energy use.
5. Install a timer : If your heater is electric, turn it off during non-peak hours such as overnight
6. Use greywater heat recovery systems : 90% of water's energy is typically lost down the drain.

Some of the above items are costly to implement, and others are inexpensive. Most can be handled without hiring a plumber, especially those items at the top of the list.

As a Newport Beach homeowner, take control. Apply these energy-saving, water-heating strategies and you'll not only save money each month, but you'll lengthen the useful life of your home's appliances and plumbing.

If you're in need a plumber referral, please ask.

Fed Minutes : A Fed Divided Reaches Comprise

Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its 2-day meeting September 20-21, 2011.

The release shows a divided Fed in disagreement about the current U.S. monetary policy. The group reached compromise for new economic stimulus, however, and maintained its commitment to accommodative interest rates.

Wall Street reacted tepidly to the minutes. Mortgage rates in Tustin worsened slightly post-release.

The Fed Minutes gets less press than the FOMC's post-meeting press release, but it's every bit as important. Because it details the conversations that take place among voting and non-voting Fed members at FOMC meetings, the Fed Minutes is an inside-look at the debates and discussion that lead to new monetary policy.

As examples, here are some of the topics covered at the September FOMC meeting :

• On growth : Economic growth was slow, but "did not suggest a contraction"
• On housing : The market continues to be "depressed by weak demand"
• On rates : The Fed Funds Rate will remain low until mid-2013

Then, with Fed members divided on whether the central bank should add new stimulus, it reached a compromise instead, launching the $400 billion "Operation Twist" program. Operation Twist is meant to lower longer-term interest rates, including mortgage rates.

Since Operation Twist began, mortgage rates are higher by nearly 0.375%.

Also noteworthy within the Fed Minutes was concern for an economic slowdown and how the Federal Reserve may react. According to the record, a slowdown may prompt the Fed to introduce its third round of qualitative easing, or QE3. An out-sized stimulus plan would likely lead rates higher.

Nothing will happen until the Fed's next meeting, however. Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co meet next November 1-2 for a 2-day meeting..

Retail Sales Expected To Rise; Mortgage Rates Should Rise, Too

The American Consumer is alive and well, it seems.

Friday morning, the Census Bureau will release its Retail Sales figures for September. The report is expected to show an increase in gross receipts for the 15th straight month with analysts predicting a 0.6 percent increase from August.

The projected increase represents the largest jump in Retail Sales in six months and would likely lead mortgage rates higher for buyers in Tustin and   nationwide.

The connection between Retail Sales and mortgage rates is fairly straight-forward. Retail Sales are the majority component of "consumer spending" and consumer spending represents the majority of the U.S. economy -- up to 70 percent, by some estimates.

And, as the economy goes, so go mortgage rates.

10 months ago, mortgage rates shot forward to start the year. This is because expectations were high for a strong economic rebound. Conforming and FHA rates crossed 5 percent at the time and were headed toward six.

By mid-April, though, it was clear that economic data was falling short of predictions. As a result, mortgage rates declined, kicking off the 2011 Refi Boom. Then, by August, on ongoing economic softness, mortgage rates in California fell further, making new all-time lows.

Expectations for a recovery have returned. Rates are now rising.

Last week's strong jobs report sparked hope for the U.S. economy and investors have been voting with their dollars. Mortgage rates are now up 7 consecutive days and Friday's Retail Sales report could cement the trend.

If you're shopping mortgage rates today, there's risk in "floating". You may want to lock your rate before Friday's Retail Sales report drives rates even higher.

The Retail Sales report will be released at 8:30 AM ET.

Quiz : What's The First Thing You Should Do After A Home Purchase?

Did you remember to handle the most basic safety precaution for your new home?

When people buy homes -- in Irvine or wherever --  , there's a tendency to think "Big Picture" on home improvements. Flooring, painting and furniture are common "just-moved-in" purchases, as are cable television and utilities packages.

The most important move-in purchase, though, may also be the least expensive -- deadbolts for your doors.

Every home has at least one -- and sometimes up to dozen -- keyed points of entry. And until you change those locks, there's no telling just how many people may have access to your home.

For example, your home's prior owners may have shared house keys with any/all of the following people :

• Real estate agents
• Neighbors and friends
• Parents, brothers and sisters
• Home cleaning service
• Dog walkers and pet sitters

Those keys will still gain entry into your home until you change the locks. This is why your first act homeowner should be to replace all your home's keyed entries with new locks and/or deadbolts.

Locks and deadbolts come in a variety of designs and finises, with varying price points. A basic single-cylinder, keyed deadbolt costs less than $15, and a powerful digital-entry, keyless system sells for $200-plus. There are a bevy of models at prices in between, too.

Regardless of which lock system you choose, don't procrastinate on installation. Ideally, your locks should be changed on the same day of purchase, as close to closing's completion as possible.

Hardware stores carry most deadbolt varieties and many can be installed with just a screwdriver. For complicated installations, talk to a locksmith.

Should I Refinance My Home?

With mortgage rates at all-time lows, you may be asking "Is now a good time to refinance?". This short interview from NBC's The Today Show offers good insight.

Refinancing a mortgage is about more than just "low rates". For example, there are costs associated with giving a new mortgage and even with the average, 30-year fixed rate mortgage near 4 percent, the costs of a such a move can outweigh the benefits -- both in the short- and long-term.

The video originally ran in September when mortgage rates averaged 4.09%. Rates are different today, but the offered advice remains relevant.

Some of the key points raised include :

• The lowest rates come with the highest costs. Consider a slightly higher-rate option from your bank.
• Falling home values may make it harder to qualify for a refinance in the future. Your best time to act may be now.
• If you're many years into a 30-year loan, you can consider switching to a 15-year mortgage to avoid "resetting" your term.

And, lastly, the interviewee makes a strong point that your refinance should save you enough money to make paying the closing costs "worth it". Make sure the break-even point on your closing costs versus your monthly savings occurs within a reasonable time frame.

At 4 minutes, the The Today Show video is short, but dense with quality information. For follow-up on whether a refinance makes sense for your situation, be sure to talk with your loan officer.

Freddie Mac : Mortgage Rates Sub-4 Percent

Mortgage rates have dropped past 4 percent.

For the first time in more than 40 years, data from Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage falling below 4 percent, dropping to 3.94 percent nationwide. It's the lowest average 30-year fixed reading in the survey's history.

In addition, Freddie Mac shows the 15-year fixed and 5-year ARM making new all-time lows, too, falling to 3.26% and 2.96%, respectively.

It's a great time to be shopping for a mortgage or buying a home in Irvine. Because mortgage rates are dropping, housing payments are dropping, too. As compared to 8 months ago, for every $100,000 borrowed, homeowners now pay $66 less principal + interest each month.

On a $300,000 mortgage, that's $71,280 saved in 30 years.

Mortgage rates have been lower for several reasons, some of which include :

• U.S. economic growth has been slower-than-expected
• Uncertainty surrounds Greece and the Eurozone
• The Federal Reserve's "Operation Twist"

In general, demand for mortgage bonds has been high and that's caused mortgage rates to fall. It should be noted, however, that although the 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell below 4 percent this week, the amount of discount points required to lock that rate rose by 10 basis points, or $100 per $100,000 borrowed.

Homeowners in California are paying bigger fees for these lower rates. If you plan to move within a few years, these fees may wipe out your low-rate savings.

As you shop for a mortgage, pay attention to more than just rates. Low rates are great, but not when they come with high costs. Talk to your loan officer for help with making a plan than works for you.

A Mortgage Rate Strategy Ahead Of Friday's Jobs Report

Mortgage rates are prepped to make big moves in the next 36 hours. Is it time for you to call in your rate lock?

Friday, at 8:30 AM ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Non-Farm Payrolls report for September. Issued monthly, the "jobs report" offers sector-by-sector job creation figures from the month prior, and reports on the national Unemployment Rate.

Last month, exactly zero net new jobs were created, the government said. This month, economists expect a net 60,000 new jobs created.

Depending on where the actual monthly figure falls, FHA and conforming mortgage rates in Tustin may be volatile. The jobs reports tends to have out-sized influence on the mortgage bond market.

The connection between the jobs market and the mortgage market is fairly straight-forward. As jobs go, so goes the economy. This is because more working Americans leads to a stronger economic base.

1. When more people work, consumer spending grows
2. When more people work, governments collect more taxes
3. When more people work, household savings increases

Each of these items are strengths to a recovering economy.

For rate shoppers, Friday's job report could cause mortgage rates to rise -- or fall. If the actual number of jobs created exceeded the 60,000 consensus estimate, look for mortgage rates to climb.

Conversely, if new jobs fell short of 60,000, expect that rates will drop.

Home affordability is at all-time highs because mortgage rates are at all-time lows. If you're under contract for a home or looking to refinance, eliminate some of your interest rate risk. Lock ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls release.

Get your rate lock in today.

A Mortgage Rate Strategy Ahead Of Friday's Jobs Report

Mortgage rates are prepped to make big moves in the next 36 hours. Is it time for you to call in your rate lock?

Friday, at 8:30 AM ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Non-Farm Payrolls report for September. Issued monthly, the "jobs report" offers sector-by-sector job creation figures from the month prior, and reports on the national Unemployment Rate.

Last month, exactly zero net new jobs were created, the government said. This month, economists expect a net 60,000 new jobs created.

Depending on where the actual monthly figure falls, FHA and conforming mortgage rates in Irvine may be volatile. The jobs reports tends to have out-sized influence on the mortgage bond market.

The connection between the jobs market and the mortgage market is fairly straight-forward. As jobs go, so goes the economy. This is because more working Americans leads to a stronger economic base.

1. When more people work, consumer spending grows
2. When more people work, governments collect more taxes
3. When more people work, household savings increases

Each of these items are strengths to a recovering economy.

For rate shoppers, Friday's job report could cause mortgage rates to rise -- or fall. If the actual number of jobs created exceeded the 60,000 consensus estimate, look for mortgage rates to climb.

Conversely, if new jobs fell short of 60,000, expect that rates will drop.

Home affordability is at all-time highs because mortgage rates are at all-time lows. If you're under contract for a home or looking to refinance, eliminate some of your interest rate risk. Lock ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls release.

Get your rate lock in today.

Home Values Rose For the 4th Straight Month

The government is confirming what the private sector has already shown --  home values are on the rise.

The Federal Home Finance Agency's Home Price Index shows home values rose 0.8% in July.

July marks the fourth straight month that home values climbed and the FHFA's Home Price Index is the latest in a series of "rising home values" reports -- an encouraging trend for buyers and sellers in Tustin and nationwide.

Last week, the S&P Case-Shiller Index showed home value up nearly 1 percent in July. CoreLogic reached a similar conclusion.

Nationwide, values are back to their highest levels since November 2010. Clearly, the housing market in California is moving in the right direction. Or is it?

Although the data from the government and from private firms such as CoreLogic is encouraging, it's also flawed. As such, we have to be careful about the conclusions we draw from the data.

The flaws of Home Price Index are glaring :

1. Only homes backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac are included in the index. In today's market, because of the FHA's popularity, that leaves 1 of 3 homes "uncounted".
2. Only home resales are counted. New home sales are omitted entirely.
3. The data comes with a 60-day delay. The October market is different from July's.

Despite these shortcomings, however, the Home Price Index remains relevant. It's among the most through home valuation models and it's often used by economists and policy-makers.

When the Home Price Index is rising, Wall Street and Capitol Hill take notice. For residents of "Main Street", however, the data may not be as important. To get local, up-to-date market statistics in Tustin Ranch Estates, for example , talk with a professional real estate agent.

Since peaking in April 2007, the FHFA's Home Price Index is off 17.6 percent.

Conforming Loan Limits Drop In High-Cost Areas

For homeowners in high-cost areas nationwide, conforming and FHA loan limits have dropped by as much as 14 percent.

Effective October 1, 2011, the temporary mortgage loan limits that allowed for non-jumbo loan sizes of up to $729,750 are no longer.

$729,750 is above the "normal" loan limit of $417,000.

The elevated limits were put in place in 2008 as the economy and financial sector entered its crisis. At the time, there was little private money to serve buyers and would-be refinancers whose loan sizes exceeded Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's maximum $417,000 loan limits.

For most people whose loan sizes exceeded that threshold, mortgage financing was unavailable. There were no lenders to back the loan size.

This was of particular importance in places such as New York City, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. where home prices routinely top $1 million. For people in these areas, unless they had a downpayment that could lower their respective loan sizes to $417,000 or lower, mortgages were mostly unavailable.

Congress recognized this and, as a result, gave Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac temportary authorization to purchase and securitize home loans of up to $729,750 in value, depending on where the subject property was located.

The program helped housing, leading Congress to pass more permanent, location-specific loan limits. Later that same year, Congress passed the Housing and Recovery Act of 2009 which, in part, made high-cost loan limit pricing permanent, albeit at $625,500.

The $729,750 temporary limits expired Friday, September 30, 2011. Today, the maximum allowable conforming loan size is $625,500.

If you live in a high-cost area, therefore, take note. Mortgage rates may be low, but the amount of loan for which you qualify may be less than you expect, and you may find yourself ineligible.

The complete list of high-cost areas is available online.

Fall Fix-Ups For Your Home

It's October and the fall season has officially started. For homeowners throughout California and nationwide, the change of season is a well-timed, "preventative maintenance" reminder.

As temperatures cool, there are a handful of do-it-yourself projects you should undertake in order to keep your home in tip-top shape through the winter. This 4-minute piece from NBC's The Today Show highlights just a few of them.

Calling it a "Fall Fix-Up Checklist", The Today Show's interview is fast-paced and wide-ranging. Some of the topics covered include :

• Pick up all fallen leaves to limit damage to grass and "critter" invasions
• Unclog gutters to protect windows and foundations
• Turn off outside water sources and remove water from pipes and hoses

The home-tip video also shares how to find air leaks in your home, and how to fix them. Reducing air leaks can lower your home's heating and cooling bills by thousands of dollars annually.

Although the highlighted projects are DIYs, you may feel more comfortable hiring a professional. Know your "handyman limits", and remain safe at all times.

Despite Low Rates, Pending Home Sales Slip In August

Despite the lowest mortgage rates of all-time, home buyers are slowing the pace at which they're buying homes.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, the Pending Home Sales Index fell 1 percent in August.

The Pending Home Sales Index measures homes under contract, but not yet sold, nationwide. In this respect, the Pending Home Sales Index is a forward-looking housing market indicator; a predictor of future home sales.

It's one of the few national indices that "looks ahead" to future market conditions. Most housing data, by contrast, describes past events.

On a regional basis, only the South Region showed improvement in August's Pending Home Sales Index report : 

• Northeast Region: -5.8%
• Midwest Region : -3.7%
• South Region : +2.6%
• West Region : -2.4%

That said, even the value of regional data can be questioned. Like all things in real estate, the number of homes going under contract will vary on the local level.

For example, in the Northeast Region where pending home sales slipped in August, there are close to a dozen states. Some of those states performed better than others, and there is no doubt that cities and towns exist in the region in which pending home sales actually climbed.

As a national/regional report, the Pending Home Sales Index cannot show local market data and, for that reason, it's somewhat irrelevant to everyday buyers and sellers in Newport Beach. If you're in the market to buy or sell a home today, it's your local housing market data that matters to you. 

We watch the Pending Home Sales Index because it paints a broad picture of housing nationwide. To get local market conditions, though, you'll want to talk with a local real estate professional.

Case-Shiller Index : 85% Of Tracked Cities Showed Home Price Improvement In July

Standard & Poors released its monthly Case-Shiller Index this week. The Case-Shiller Index measures home price changes from month-to-month, and year-to-year, in 20 select U.S. cities. It also reports a "national" index; a composite of the values in said cities.

The most recent Case-Shiller Index shows a 0.9% rise in home values from June to July 2011. Home values were higher in 17 of the 20 tracked cities. Only Phoenix and Las Vegas fell. Denver was flat.

Also noteworthy is that, of all of the Case-Shiller cities, Detroit posted the strongest 1-year, home price improvement. As compared to July 2010, home values are higher by 1.2 percent in Detroit. This bests even Washington, D.C. -- long-believed to be the nation's healthiest housing market.

That said, we should be careful of the conclusions we draw from July's Case-Shiller Index -- both on a city-wide level, and on a national level. This is because, as with most "home price trackers", the Case-Shiller Index has flaws in its methodology. 

The first Case-Shiller Index flaw is its limited scope. Although it's purported to be a "nationa"l housing index, the data that comprises the monthly Case-Schiller Index is sourced from just 20 U.S. cities. These 20 cities represent just 0.6% of the more than 3,100 municipalities nationwide.

The second Case Shiller Index flaw is that the sample sets include single-family, detached homes only. iCondominiums, multi-unit homes, and new construction are specifically excluded from the Case-Shiller Index.

In some markets, "excluded" home types outnumber included ones.

And, lastly, the Case-Shiller Index is flawed in that it takes 2 months to gather data and report it. It's nearly October, yet we're still discussing the real estate market as it existing in July. For buyers and sellers in Irvine , July in ancient history. 

The Case-Shiller Index is useful for tracking long-term trends in housing, but does little to help individuals with their choices to buy or sell a home. For relevant, recent real estate data, talk to a real estate agent in your market. Real estate agents are often the best source for real-time, real estate data.

New Home Sales Figures Better Than Reported

According to the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold slid for the fourth straight month in August, easing 2 percent from July. On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, home buyers bought 295,000 newly-built homes last month.

August marked the lowest new home sales tally since February. News outlets are jumping on the story, with at least one calling it a "blow" to the housing market.

That's an unfair assessment.

It's tough for the new home market to tally big sales numbers when the number of homes for sale is dwindling and, in August, that's exactly what we saw. The number of new homes for sale nationwide fell to 162,000 last month. This is the fewest number of new homes for sale since at least 1993, the first year the Census Bureau tracked such data.

In other words, using New Home Sales as a housing market gauge may be misleading. A better metric may be new home supply. 

In August, new home supply edged 0.1 months higher to 6.6 months. This means that, at today's sales pace, the complete new home inventory would be sold out in 6.6 months.

It's the second-fastest reading in 2 years.

The new home market represents an interesting opportunity for home buyers in Tustin. Builders are facing new competition from bank-owned homes and foreclosures, dragging builder confidence to all-time lows. Furthermore, builders have low expectations for the next 6 months.

As a buyer, you can use this to your advantage. Builders may be more willing to negotiate on price and finishes versus this time last year. You may find a good "deal" in new construction once you go in search of it. 

Existing Home Sales Jump; Home Supplies Falling

Are home resales rebounding?

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, Existing Home Sales rose 8 percent in August from the month prior, and 19 percent as compared to August of last year.

"Existing homes" are homes that are previously owned; ones that cannot be considered new construction.

A total of 5.0 million existing homes were sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This is slightly better than the 12-month home resale average, a statistic partially powered by "distressed sales". Distressed homes -- homes in various stages of foreclosures or sold via short sale -- accounted for 31 percent of all home resales in August.

At the current rate of sales, the national home resale inventory would be depleted in 8.5 months. This pace is a full month faster as compared to July, and the lowest home supply reading since March 2011.  

Other noteworthy facts from the August Existing Home Sales report :

• There are currently 3.58 million existing homes for sale nationwide
• 29 percent of home buyers paid cash in August
• Real estate investors bought 22% of homes in August, up from 18% in July

Home prices throughout Tustin are based on Supply and Demand and, at least right now, it appears the supply is dropping. Furthermore, with mortgage rates at all-time lows, it's reasonable to expect demand to pick up. These two conditions should lead home prices higher.

If you're shopping for a home right now, recognize the trends and work them to your advantage. It may be "cheapest" to buy now.

How To Clean Your Home Gutters

With the change of season, it's a good time to make sure your home's gutter system is clean and well-functioning.

Home gutters serve a specific purpose. By capturing and funneling rainwater away from a home "footprint" water damage to walls, windows and roofing can be minimized. A well-functioning gutter system can keep a home's basement from flooding, and a foundation safe from long-term structural damage.

Damaged or dirty gutters can lead to major home damage that may not be covered by insurance.

For homeowners in Tustin Ranch Estates , keeping clean gutters is essential. Luckily, with the right tools, gutter maintenance can be a do-it-yourself job.

First, gather the necessary tools. You'll need a ladder for climbing; a bucket for holding debris; a hose for flushing your gutters; and a small, scooping tool such as a trowel.

Next, carefully climb to your gutter. Using your hands, scoop large debris and place it in the bucket. Use the trowel to get to hard-to-reach places and for removing sticks and leaves. For safety, do not stretch to reach the next section of gutter. 

After clearing the first gutter portion, step down from the ladder, move it to the next section of gutter, and repeat. Do this until all gutter sections are free from debris.

Next, find a garden hose with a spray attachment. Carry the hose up the ladder with you to the highest point of your gutter system -- usually opposite the downspout. With the water supply on, spray water into the gutter to flush the remaining debris.

If the water fails to drain, there's likely a clog in the downspout. Using a screwdriver, separate the downspout, find the clog, and remove it. Or, if you find standing water, adjust the slope of your gutter by removing the gutter hangers, fixing the slope, and re-attaching the hangers.

A gutter system should slope roughly one-quarter inch for every 10 feet of gutter. 

Gutter maintenance is a twice a year task that you can do yourself. However, if you're uncomfortable on a ladder, or prefer to hire professionals, that's okay, too. As with everything in home maintenance, it's safety first.